This is about as tough of a hangover spot as you can find on the board this week, as Notre Dame was just one play away from knocking off Ohio State in front of the entire college football world before suffering a demoralizing loss on the final play of the game. You have to think it would be impossible for the stench of that loss to dissipate in just a few days for a team that had College Football Playoff aspirations. Fast forward to this week and now the Irish will have to hit the road for a prime time game against a Duke team that is firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball and looks like a serious contender in the ACC. Therefore, it’s no coincidence that this line has already come down from 6.5, and I expect it to eventually dip to 5, or even 4.5 by kickoff on Saturday.
All the Blue Devils have done this year is win and look impressive in doing so, and I’m not sure that stops this week. Duke’s offense has an extremely high floor (7th in passing success rate, 18th in offensive success rate, 28th in EPA per play) that I expect the Blue Devils to succeed, even against a stout Notre Dame front seven. Riley Leonard has the poise and presence to succeed in big games and I also can’t discount what Mike Elko has done with this defense. The Blue Devils are 4th in opponent EPA per game, 7th in opponent EPA per pass and 10th in net points per drive this season. This includes an excellent performance against Clemson, so I don’t think the step up in class this week will intimidate this experienced group. Elko formerly coached at Notre Dame so you know that this game is personal to him. Beyond that, I trust Elko much more in this spot than Marcus Freeman, who struggled mightily toward the end of the game against the Buckeyes, even as Ryan Day tried his hardest to lose that contest. This is pretty easily the biggest game for Duke in a decade so I’ll gladly take the Blue Devils to battle to the bitter end and cover this number.
All the Blue Devils have done this year is win and look impressive in doing so, and I’m not sure that stops this week. Duke’s offense has an extremely high floor (7th in passing success rate, 18th in offensive success rate, 28th in EPA per play) that I expect the Blue Devils to succeed, even against a stout Notre Dame front seven. Riley Leonard has the poise and presence to succeed in big games and I also can’t discount what Mike Elko has done with this defense. The Blue Devils are 4th in opponent EPA per game, 7th in opponent EPA per pass and 10th in net points per drive this season. This includes an excellent performance against Clemson, so I don’t think the step up in class this week will intimidate this experienced group. Elko formerly coached at Notre Dame so you know that this game is personal to him. Beyond that, I trust Elko much more in this spot than Marcus Freeman, who struggled mightily toward the end of the game against the Buckeyes, even as Ryan Day tried his hardest to lose that contest. This is pretty easily the biggest game for Duke in a decade so I’ll gladly take the Blue Devils to battle to the bitter end and cover this number.